A recent report from an American anthropologist and activist Virginia Deane Abernethy showed that America's birth rate is now slowly increasing after its major drop from 2007 to 2017. The National Health Statistics Reports showed the fertility rate on women in America, and they recorded that those in rural areas had a higher fertility rate with 1.95 total births while those living in the city had the lowest fertility rate with 1.71 births.
Another factor that they looked at is the age of the firstborns. It is a predictor of complete family size and the ages varied in 2017 between urban counties with a 25.8 age rate, rural counties with a 24.5 age rate and cities with a 27.7 age rate. It is also said that women who decided to have children late in their life tend to have smaller families.
According to Abernethy, a fertility rate that is below 2.1 births per American woman is less than the number that is needed in order to replace the generation of their parents. Because of this, immigration is needed or else there will be a decline in the American population.
However, the demographic solution that was given before may not entirely happen because, since 2018, there has been a rise in the fertility rate. Thanks to the thriving economy, the baby boom of 2020 is starting.
The baby boom of the 2020s
A report in 1979 submitted by Abernethy stated that couples want to have a large family only if the economy permits them to do so. Unfortunately, during the 1970s, 80% of the American population was affected by the sudden inflation of the prices of goods and women were forced to work too in order to make ends meet. This then started the increase in families with only one to three children because they can no longer afford to have more.
Recently, 80% of the American population felt income gains, and President Trump called it the blue-collar boom. Now, couples are thinking of having more children and women are getting more confident in having children in their early twenties. The current thriving economy can give way to the baby boom of the 2020s.
The last baby boom
The last baby boom in America was from 1947 and 1962, and it was connected to great labor market that offered jobs and fast promotions. During that time, men went to work while women stayed at home and took care of the children. The average number of children in the 1940s and 1960s household were three to five, and all of them had equal opportunities in life like education, leisure, and jobs after they graduated.
The previous baby boom happened right after the great depression in the 1930s, it was post-war and thousands of men were killed in combat, leaving thousands of grieving widows and the male to female ratio was not enough for all widows to start another family. After a decade, the children who were born post-war all married young, thus increasing the population again.
If the current American economy stabilizes, more and more millennials will want to start their own family and more women will want to have children and this could lead to a growing population.
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