In the next 50 years, a magnitude-9 earthquake might hit the Aleutian Islands, says scientists from the University of Hawaii at Manoa(UHM).The probability of such a strong earthquake is low at nine percent but the cost of the effects are gargantuan, amounting to an estimate of $40 billion dollars and the gruesome possibility of leading to a mega-tsunami in Hawaii.
A new study published in the Journal of Geophysical Research last April 20 revealed the 9 percent probability of an earthquake that will lead to a mega-tsunami in Hawaii, even if it hasn't experienced any mega-tsunami in recorded human history. The scientists disclosed a three percent margin of error.
The team of scientists headed by geophysicist Rhett Butler used a numerical model based on fault length and plate convergence rate.They used records of strong earthquakes that led to tsunamis since 1900. These are earthquakes that rattled Tohoku, Sumatra-Andaman, Chile and Kamchatka.
The process of studying these records of earthquakes was necessary to validate the study team's findings through the Bayesian technique. Bayesian.org says that the technique is useful for making consistent and sound decisions when faced with uncertainty.
"These five events represent half of the seismic energy that has been released globally since 1900. The events differed in details, but all of them generated great tsunamis that caused enormous destruction," Rhett Butler said, as reported by Headlines and Global News.
The study's numerical model was also compared to pre-recorded history of earthquake-driven, tsunami accounts. Without the records, the team had to look for evidence in coastal sediments, volcanic tephras and archaeological sites. Butler then reported that the study's model fit the paleotsunami data.
According to National Geographic, the Aleutian Islands run parallel to the Aleutian Trench. The Aleutian Islands have 27 of the total 65 historically active volcanoes in the United States. In 2012, Discovery already reported the possibility of a tsunami in the Aleutian Islands preceded by an earthquake, naming it a "tsunami-maker candidate."
According to the Discovery report, the Alaskan-Aleutian subduction zone is located at the edge of the tectonic plate carrying the Pacific Ocean that is beneath another plate to the north. The 9.2 magnitude Great Alaska Earthquake that happened on March 27,1964 is the strongest recorded earthquake in the U.S. and amounted to 145 deaths.
Alaska is 4,942 kilometers away from Hawaii. However, according to the study, a probable magnitude 9.0 earthquake is powerful enough to lead to a mega-tsunami that will damage the islands.
Do you think that with a 9% probability of a strong earthquake that will lead to a mega-tsunami, people should start preparing by now? Share us your thoughts in the comments section below.
